Integrating Scenario-Based Reasoning into a Multi-Criteria Decision Support System for Emergency Management

Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is a technique for decision making among multiple alternatives for action providing transparent and coherent decision support for complex situations with conflicting objectives. Managing longer term decisions for environmental incidents is an application domain in which MCDA has proved useful. Yet a difficulty in applying MCDA is when uncertainties abound. Contrarily, scenario-based reasoning is a method allowing for the assessment of multiple possible future developments of the situation. In this way, the use of scenarios is a transparent and easily understandable way to integrate uncertainties into the reasoning process. We propose a mechanism to integrate scenarios. Our theoretical framework can be operationalised by decision support systems relying on both automated systems and human experts. These facilitate the assessment of consequences within a scenario, and may propose new scenarios. We illustrate this mechanism taking the decision making in emergency management after a train crash with potential release of chlorine as an example. DOI: 10.4018/978-1-61520-987-3.ch014